The standoff between Moscow and its powerful Wagner mercenary group ended without bloodshed after an amnesty agreement was reached late Saturday night.
The leader of the group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, agreed to go into exile in Belarus in a deal that also removed the immediate threat of an assault on Moscow by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s private army.
Security measures imposed as part of the “anti-terrorist operation” were still in place in Moscow on Sunday, and Prigozhin’s exact whereabouts are unknown, but his troops left the military headquarters they had captured in southern Russia.
The long-standing feud between Prigozin and the military over the conduct of a Russian operation in Ukraine came to a head on Saturday, when Wagner forces seized a base in Rostov-on-Don and launched a lengthy offensive against Moscow.
Vladimir Putin denounced these actions as high treason and vowed to punish those responsible for bringing Russia to the brink of civil war, only to then pass a quick-cooked deal designed to avert Russia’s worst security crisis in decades.
‘Russian blood’
Hours after Prigozhin’s surprise announcement that his troops would return to base to avoid “the shedding of Russian blood,” the Kremlin announced that Putin’s former ally was leaving for Belarus and that Russia would not pursue either him or Wagner’s troops.
By early Sunday, Wagner had left Rostov-on-Don, according to the regional governor, but before leaving, dozens of residents were reportedly applauding and chanting “Wagner! Wagner! near the military headquarters they captured.
Ukraine has reveled in the chaos, stepping up its own counteroffensive against Russian forces in the country and mocking Moscow’s apparent humiliation.
Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko said he had agreed on a truce with Prigozhin. Moscow thanked him, but observers noted that Lukashenka’s intervention was embarrassing.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov later said that the criminal case against Prigozhin would be dropped and he would go to Belarus, and the Wagner members who took part in what the authorities called the “armed rebellion” would not be prosecuted.
In Ukraine, a senior aide to President Volodymyr Zelensky, Mikhail Podolyak, tweeted: “Prigozhin has humiliated Putin/the state and shown that there is no longer a monopoly on violence.”
While Russia claimed the uprising had no effect on its campaign in Ukraine, Kyiv said the unrest provided a “window of opportunity” as the country launched its long-awaited counteroffensive.
And experts say the truce probably won’t be the end of Prigozin’s story of feuding with Moscow, as Putin is now obligated to take steps to restore his power.
In addition to providing some of the most successful strike units fighting in Ukraine, Prigozhin’s unit is conducting several mercenary operations in the Middle East and West Africa.
These missions are believed to be backed by the Kremlin and are Russian influence operations designed to curry favor with African governments and gain access to mineral resources.
Independent political analyst Konstantin Kalachev told AFP: “Yesterday, the crisis of institutions and trust was not obvious to many in Russia and the West. Today it is clear.”
“Yesterday’s call for unity by the representatives of the elites only confirmed this. Behind this is a crisis of institutions and fear for oneself,” he said.
He noted that Russian leaders would be concerned about the sight of civilian onlookers applauding Wagner units in Rostov.
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, Lukashenko’s direct role in the ceasefire negotiations would be humiliating for the Russian leadership.
“Now the Kremlin is faced with a highly unstable balance,” the report says.
“The deal negotiated with Lukashenka is a short-term solution, not a long-term one, and Prigozhin’s rebellion exposed serious weaknesses in the Kremlin and the Russian Defense Ministry.”
In the center of Moscow, security measures have been stepped up, the parliament building is guarded by armed men in bulletproof vests, and Red Square is closed to the public.
“I don’t know how to react. In any case, it is very sad,” Yelena, 35, told AFP, declining to give her last name.
“Blow to Russia”
On Saturday, as the Wagner squad headed north towards Putin along the main highway, Putin accused Prigozhin of a “stab in the back” that threatened Russia’s very survival.
“Any internal turmoil is a deadly threat to our statehood and to us as a nation… Extravagant ambitions and personal interests have led to betrayal,” Putin said, referring to Prigozhin, who began building his power base as a catering contractor.
While Prigozhin’s detachment fought at the forefront of Russia’s offensive in Ukraine, he repeatedly accused Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov of under-supplying his units.
