Boeing expects the number of commercial aircraft operating worldwide to double over the next 20 years, forecasting slightly more growth than rival Airbus, according to estimates released Sunday.
The American aircraft manufacturer estimates that 48,575 aircraft will enter service in 2042, up from 24,500 last year. This would require the production of 42,595 aircraft by all manufacturers combined—half to replace existing aircraft and the other half to accommodate growth.
North America will account for 23% of these new aircraft, Asia and the Pacific for 22%, Eurasia for 21%, and China alone for 20%.
The forecast, released ahead of the opening of the Bourges air show on the outskirts of Paris, is in line with projections made by Boeing last year when it predicted a global fleet of 47,080 aircraft in 2041.
Rival Airbus said Wednesday it expects to need 40,850 new passenger and cargo aircraft by 2042, bringing the global fleet to 46,560 aircraft.
Following the COVID-19 pandemic demand shock to air travel, the industry is now “shifting from a recovery mindset to the fundamentals behind air travel,” said Darren Holst, chief commercial marketing officer at Boeing.
Holst pointed to the link between propensity to travel and global GDP, which he predicts will grow exponentially over the next two decades, bringing another 500 million people into the middle class and becoming potential travelers.
Boeing also expects the number of low-cost carriers to double over the next 20 years, a significant increase but slower than the last 20 years, when their combined fleet grew 6x.
Demand for cargo ships should also remain strong as Boeing expects freight growth to outstrip total global trade.
Source: AFP.
