Amid a slowing birth rate, mounting financial pressures and changing social norms, China’s population shrank for the first time in more than six decades, according to official data released Tuesday.
The world’s most populous country faces a looming demographic crisis as its workforce ages, which analysts warn could stunt growth and increase pressure on tight government treasuries.
Analysts point to the soaring cost of living, as well as the growing number of women in the labor market and those seeking higher education, as reasons for the slowdown.
“Who dares to have children?” a 30-year-old Shanghai resident said on Tuesday.
“Unemployment is so high, COVID has ruined everything, there is nothing we can do. Next year we will again have a decline in growth.”
Mainland China’s population was about 1,411,750,000 at the end of 2022, down 850,000 from the end of the previous year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
According to NBS, the number of births was 9.56 million and the number of deaths was 10.41 million.
The last time China’s population declined was in the early 1960s, when the country was battling the worst famine in its modern history as a result of Mao Zedong’s disastrous agricultural policies known as the Great Leap Forward.
China lifted its strict one-child policy, introduced in the 1980s over overpopulation fears, in 2016 and allowed couples to have three children in 2021.
But that has failed to reverse the demographic decline in a country that has long relied on its huge workforce as the engine of economic growth.
“In the coming years, the population is likely to decrease,” said Zhiwei Zhang of Pinpoint Asset Management.
“China cannot rely on the demographic dividend as a structural driver of economic growth,” he added.
“Economic growth will have to depend more on productivity growth, which is determined by public policy.”
“Strong Pressure”
The one-child policy meant that the Chinese were used to smaller families, Xujian Peng, a researcher at Australia’s Victoria University, told AFP.
And for those who were just a child as a result of this policy, “there is a lot of pressure when it comes to taking care of your parents and improving your quality of life in the future,” a young woman from Beijing told Agence France-Presse. (AFP).
For those who have children, balancing work and raising children can be an impossible task.
“For many women, having a baby means they have to give up a lot of things they wanted to do,” explained Nancy, a 32-year-old e-commerce worker.
News of the declining population quickly spread across China’s heavily censored internet.
“Without children, the state and the nation have no future,” reads one comment on the Twitter-like Weibo service.
“Having children is also a social responsibility,” another comment by a well-known “patriotic” influencer says.
But others again pointed to the difficulties of raising children in modern China.
“I love my mother, I will not be a mother,” said one.
“No one wonders why we don’t want to have (children) and don’t want to get married,” said another.
“We need a political package”
Independent demographer He Yafu also pointed to the “reduction in the number of women of childbearing age, which has fallen by five million a year from 2016 to 2021” – a consequence of an aging population – as the cause of the low birth rate.
Many local authorities have already begun measures to encourage couples to have children.
The southern metropolis of Shenzhen, for example, now offers birth bonuses of up to 10,000 yuan (about $1,500) and pays benefits until the child is 3 years old.
But analysts say much more needs to be done.
“To reduce the cost of raising children, a comprehensive policy package is needed that covers childbearing, parenting and education,” researcher Peng told AFP.
“Especial attention should be paid to the lack of job security for women after childbirth.”
China’s population could shrink by an average of 1.1% annually, according to a study by the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, which was updated last year and provided by AFP.
According to the most pessimistic forecasts of this group of demographers, China could have only 587 million inhabitants in 2100, less than half of today’s population.
India will overthrow China as the world’s most populous country this year, according to the UN.
“A shrinking and aging population will be a major challenge for China,” Peng said.
“This will have a profound impact on China’s economy from now until 2100.”
